Millions worth of prediction market bets placed on US airstrikes on Iran
6d 3h ago by sopuli.xyz/u/supersquirrel in aboringdystopia from www.independent.co.uk
"Prediction market". Let's just call it what it is:
Gambling.
What a stupid waste of time and money, encouraging addiction and ruin in people.
The "prediction market" is different because it's for the already wealthy to make more money based on insider information. It's not for you and me to put in $50 and walk away with $100 if we're lucky, but for someone who already knows what's about to happen to put in 500k, walk away with a million and then claim they made their wealth legitimately...
I think you completely skipped the most exciting part where it can also be used to launder money and make covert payments under the guise of winning bets.
And it's cheaper than buying and selling "art" for the same purpose.
Oh no, that part was implied. Heavily.
No let’s really called it what it is:
Fraud and insider trading.
If you know the outcome, is it gambling?
I mean, yeah but are we glossing over the fact rich people are gambling as though its a game when real people are being killed? Cause thats the story for me.
What I'm hearing from this article is that all recent US military operations have been leaked in advance
Leaked? They've been loudly threatening to do it for the last few weeks, and moved every piece of materiel and manpower to the region. It wasn't exactly a wild guess.
The article is insinuating that inside information was used to make money on the specific date:
Now there are suspicions that other insiders used the Iran strikes to get rich. Six accounts on Polymarket reportedly won approximately $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would launch a strike on Iran on February 28, according to CoinDesk.
The other example is more convincing though:
When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, an individual with a relatively new account pumped $30,000 into a bet that Maduro would be ousted. Hours later, the Trump administration captured Maduro, earning the gambler more than $436,000.
What I don't understand is that casinos work because other people make the opposite bets. If I bet on black at roulette, someone else bets on red. The casino doesn't lose money. Who is making opposite bets here? The casino is just giving away money?